1993年，当時チェコスロバキア中央銀行総裁だったPavel Kysilka氏は，チェコとスロバキアが，チェコスロバキアの通貨クローネの使用を停止し，それぞれ独自の通貨の導入を決定したとき，それがもたらす結果について不安を抱いていました．しかし，数年後，それが杞憂であったことが判りました．とくにスロヴバキアは，独自の通貨の導入してから2年後には，離脱する前年に比べ10%高い経済成長率を記録したのです．以下，OXFORD ECONOMICSのResarch Breifing: Global Outlook, Must Grexit be a disaster? Some lessons from historyからの引用(p3)．その下は，同Briefingに掲載された共通通貨圏から離脱した年の各国のGDP成長率を示すグラフ．離脱した年に高い経済成長率を記録している国も少なくありません．
ようは，その国の政府と国民のやるきというか，覚悟，あるいは根性の問題なのかもしれません．(軍事同盟からの離脱も，似たようなものだと思います．)
Czechoslovakia 1993: the dissolution of the Czechoslovak monetary union in 1993 suggests that economic costs of currency union exit need not be severe. The whole process was managed over the span of just five weeks, and while it did involve temporary exchange controls and movement restrictions, the economic damage was limited – the GDP of Slovakia, the junior and weaker partner, fell less than 4% in 1993 and was 10% higher in 1995 than it had been in 1992.
In the two examples above, currency union exit did not cause severe financial crises (though there were some brief dislocations in the Slovak case) and output losses were modest or negligible. The risk of a financial crisis in Greece after Grexit is generally considered to be quite high, but even if this proves correct, output may prove more resilient than many expect, as some other recent cases illustrate:
Heilungs-Chance Währungsaustritt http://t.co/TEsO2gGrSv
— tendon kurata (@KurataTendon) 2015, 6月 22
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